Inventory is only 5-10% under the 5yr & 10 year averages NEW LISTINGS are Discussed inside the Chart PACE of the market had it’s own page this time Plus Ron Hauth’s Both New & Inventory together from 2007 SALES 43.48% below the 10 year 26th-Best July since 1980 WORST JULY since 1996
I’ll change the 10 year average Comparison Order a bit – to focus on PACE Benchmarks DAYS on MARKET — yes there are two BOTH ARE SURGING UPWARDS MONTHS OF Supply – also two Sales versus Inventory (two absolute Month-end Numbers that cannot be fiddled-with or fudged) Sales To New Listing PERCENTAGE (although many call…
Inventory Ron Hauth’s 2007 Chart shows Max Peaks of Inventory in Global Monetary Crisis (aka G.F.C.)2008-09, Low-Low spots in 2016-17 Immediately followed by 2017-2019 Peak (caused by Apr20/17 16 points of Gov’t Market Intervention) Then Kovid Spike Back to Record Lows due to near-zero Mortgages & Now 3.23 months of INVENTORY … PRICE PEAKS RBC’s…
First Establish “What Price you are NOT going to Get/to Pay” – Ken McLachlan 2008, Broker of Record RE/MAX Hallmark® Realty Ltd Yep, start there with the February 2022 Benchmark … everything else is relative. WATCH for “the Line” to break down Through previous year(s) 2017 most recently and then 2012 and 2008, but you…
Time to go on Vacation, or a least turn off the NEWS ONLY Q4 2008/Q1 2009 and Apr/May of Kovid LocKdown#1 even came close! Same Info using FISCAL real estate Year -Based on School Term-Sept to Aug TrREB’s Bar Chart My office colleague, Ron Hauth’s Sales & Prices Together Chart starting in 2010 – any…
Nominal Prices AND CPI Adjusted Prices since 1972 Look at adjusted Prices in Late 1970s vs the early 1990s vs the GFC in 2008-9 Take a moment to ponder if Raising Interest Rates will “succeed” again? Will ‘THIS TIME’ emulate either of the earlier battles? SAME ADJUSTED PRICES but Prior Peak of 1989 equals 100
As an aside – I’ve often said, “There are only two Kinds of People in Canada … those on Well & Septic … and everybody else”. “Commuter-watershed” (which s/be the political/tax-spend/administrative boundaries akin to current ‘province’) is a description of how people intentionally life near-but-far from a Big Urban Centre. These outlying towns are mostly…
If we take July 2022 Average Price $1,074,754 (similar $ to Feb ’21 & June 2021) and extend it’s current drift down at 1% /month, 2.0%/Month, 3.0%/Mth & 3.5%/Month We end up in Feb or June 2020, Oct ’16 thru Jan’19, Apr-Dec 2015 or Jan/Feb 2015 respectively I’ve looked at Peaks from Both Sides Now
The average of the last 22 years for June to July is -3.47% It was down in 21 of 22 years … so I’d say it’s a seasonal norm So the June Price minus 3.47% (cumulative -17.09% from Feb 2022 peak) is to-be-expected that’s $1,106,500 — similar to Aug-Sept 2021 But ….. we’ll know in…
You may have seen the excellent Canada-wide article “Downgrading our forecast for Canada’s housing Market” from Robert Hogue, Assistant Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada. He used seasonally-adjusted, quarterly House Price Index Values (from Royal Lepage and CREA’s HPI)and (quite inspirationally) combined some recent Real Estate market Price Peaks on a Peak=100 basis.…
“If you wish to converse with (each other), first, please define your terms.” — Jean/Carol Canuck-Voltaire-Arpents After hearing Danielle Smith recently posit Alberta Separatism version 5.02 and after years, nay decades, of hearing the Belle Province’s dirigists expounding on Sovereignty in our their house or some ‘durn thang‘, I am moved to discuss Canadian Political…
With only 10.5 of July’s 21 reporting days under our belts — it’s definitely too early to be definite SALES ARE ‘way down, but so are brand-spanking-NEW listings Keep in mind the 4 months of Inventory Guideline Esp w the New Listings mess about to emerge BUT … this uses Stratus INVENTORY (not TrREB’s unadjusted…
INVENTORY New Listings (BOTH Gross & Net) More Looks at Inventory & New Listings Days on Market — PACE of the Market TREB chart of PDOM vs LDOM Months of Supply Sales to New Listing Ratio (sort-of) Ronnie has Both together — look at the Spikes Sales as before
Regular look School Year look TrREB’s Look Mr Hauth has a Loooooong 1972 look Ron’s Shorter Look -2010
unclebobexplains 