PERSPECTIVE – the 10 yr Look at everything
INVENTORY 34-39% BELOW the 5 yr & 10 Yr averages NEW LISTINGS are NOT only 2.21% off the Average as the non-selling Pundits have been pronouncing. Bloated Numbers – now Quantified. THERE is LOW-LOW INVENTORY AND LOW-LOW NEW LISTINGS 33.20% of TrREB’s NEW LISTING stats is double-counting! Terminate and Re-list strategy (at a different price…
Prices – June 2021 — 4 Looks
17 of last 19 Months showed Double-Digit Yr over yr Price Increases. Nobody is Raising Interest Rates anytime soon. Wages are going to be pushed up (luring folks of CERB etc). Virtue-Signaling Hand-wringing about ‘affordability’ in the top 3 Quintiles(ie the Home Buyers) will diminish See the pattern? Seasonal. Regular. Orange Bar Looks pretty steady……
4 looks at GTA Realty Sales
THIRD BEST JUNE EVER!! SCHOOL YEAR view. Sept thru August. Do YOU see a Trough in 2020, that kinda-sorta EQUAL-and-opposite to the BOOM Peak/Crest of Spring 2021? or is it just me? TrREB’s Bar Chart June’s Orange Bar is higher than any-other coloured bar (2018-2021ytd) ONLY March ’21, April ’21 & May ’21 are higher…
INFLATION -even at 2% a yr ADDS UP fast (rule of 72 says ‘double in 36 yrs’) so that’s 25% in about 10yrs
TrREB Annual PRICES nominal and Adjusted for CPI inflation Same Info — But 100 = 1989. Today is 216.38 that’s the best 22 years of appreciation in TO EVERYTHING is Monthly Payments!!
June 2021 — Separating TrREB’s 416 & the 3 905s
WHERE are the 11,106 Sales reported in OVERAL TrREB Market? (NB The 3rd BEST June in TrREB HISTORY) 65% in 905s and 35% in 416 Overall Condo in 416 = 21.77% Freehold in 416 = 13.11% Condo in 905 = 16.03% Freehold in 905 = 49.08% TRREB says the Average Prices in the two Regions…
A:20% Q: HOW MUCH are TrREB’s/CREA’s New Listings numbers being overstated due to the “TERMINATE & Immed Re-List” strategy? is it 5% – 15% – 25% ??
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Why is market tight? NEW LISTINGS stats is 20% OVER-STATED — it’s BLOATED by these duplicates Today’s content I started talking again about this in my 10yr comparative Look at the May GTA Stats Heck – if … the Terminate & Immediate re-list Listing Strategy was used by a Large NUMBER (say 50-60%)…
May 2021 data –THE 10 Yr PERSPECTIVE on Inventory, New Listings, Days on Market, Pace of Market and Sales
INVENTORY WAY BELOW averages NEW LISTINGS are spot on, BUT … if we say 15% of NEW are duplicates (Terminate after failed initial strategy and immediate re-lists) then New Listings are down 12- 13% from the Averages Ronnie shows TrREB’s un-interpreted NEW Listings figures being way up and Active/Total Listings being on typical – this…
May 2021 – Four Looks at GTA PRICES
Covid interrupted the Almost-always Year over Year Price Increase Notable today TrREB has had DOUBLE-DIGIT yr over yr PRICE Increases in 18 of the last 18 months – pushing the historic limit which was BUSTED to bits by the 16 Steps of the Wynne Lib Ontario Gov’t in April of 2017 Same Info – USING…
May 2021 –4 Looks at SALES numbers
The News says Sales are Down — But ONLY compared to the ALL-TIME RECORDS set in March 2021 and Record Month in April 2021 Heck May was 2nd Best May EVER and one of a very few months w sales over 11,000 NB Prices move up when sales Exceed 8,000 in a month SAME Info…
May 2021 data – INFLATION – it’s all over the news in recent weeks. Is there a reason to bother with it?
Adjusting our Annual Average Prices by the CPI This graph shows the numbers publish each year (Nominal Values) and the ADJUSTED by CPI Values for the same year PS Never say BOOM because its followed by a Bust Same CPI ADJUSTED Prices – regularized to 100 as of 1989 Peak WHERE WILL IT ALL END?…
