Part 1 — 9 or 10 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed regarding Toronto/GTA Real Estate 2018 – or we’ll never get anywhere. Not now … and not then … First of 5 sets of charts below and on 8 more numbered posts

Revised July 9/18 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Point #1 — The Real Estate Industry DOES NOT SPIN its numbers.    It’s a blessing – one that creates room for opinions and data-interpretations like this.

All other businesses/ industries put their Greatest Stat Hits and Chart-topping Wonder Numbers in the Executive Summary, the Top of Page Highlights, Above the Fold on the Front Page of the News Release.

Organised Real Estate (Realtors™) don’t do that – they print the exact-same pro forma data they did since we computerised the Statistics departments BECAUSE we don’t want to be accused (by the tiniest govt agency or consumer groups) of shilling or puffery or anything otherwise-deemed untoward.

So when you see a Report from TREB or OREA or CREA that says “Market off by 1% or  by 22%” or “Prices down/up 1% or averages 35% lower” AND that report doesn’t square with your personal experience – you gotta dig deeper.

Added From Part 5(i) The Two Solitudes are One – …. I agree with TREB’s position to continue their pro forma presentation of the 27 page Market Watch … my only suggestion would be to emphasize on the PRESS RELEASE the distinctly different contributions of the two vital components within the overall sales & prices …. maybe some reporter with an eye for a regional story or a pundit one with a mathematical bent and a name-to-make will catch on.

Point #2 — Conditional Sales.

a) Conditional Sales are up-to-the-minute Activity/Market Pace Markers that have NEVER been reported. But there are too-many of them in first-half 2018 to ignore them.

b) Because they are traditionally Not-Reported (& therefore Un-Accounted-For in Pro Forma Real Estate Industry Stats) is why we must find a place for them in any meaningful analysis of First-Half 2018 vs 2017 (when the Hot Seller market conditions meant that there were almost-NO Conditional Sales)

Point #3a & b — Analytical Time Perspective: Year over Year and this Month vs Month ago are not enough.

a) Last year AIN’T this year, the Trees DON’T grow to the Sky, this year (might be) Different  – a 10 yr comparison is required to establish a benchmark for “normal”

b) No amount of “adjusting” can make any February comparable to any January or to any June or to any other month – stop trying to draw conclusions from “seasonally-adjusted data”

Point #4 — Failure of the General (aka Federal) and Ontario government departments of Finance/Revenue, Economics, Social Policy, Housing Policy, Landlord-Tenancy Policy, Taxation of HST, Income, Capital Gains, World-wide Income etc, Non-Resident Investment Policy and attitudes towards Tax Deferrals, Avoidance, Evasion and “they’ll never find me” Scofflaws to “nip” the Real Estate Price escalation as it moved from “recovery”&”appreciation” to “speculative”, “frothy” and finally to “irrational exuberance.

Point #5a) — The Two Solitudes of the Greater Toronto Area/Greater Golden Horseshoe are ONE – but they are not treated as one. The 905 and The 416 are symbiotic, complementary, inter-woven economic and ecological civic organisms that live as one, but are governed as two. As such, the economics, the Fisc (taxes in and out) and even the Daily News are REPORTED separately, analysed separately and “thought-of” as separate.

b) One day this will change with the creation of a New Province/Special Administrative Zone of Ultra-Urban Density inside the land area delineated by the guidelines of the Greenbelt, the Oak Ridges Moraine, Places To (not)Grow  et al.

I refer to this future Unified Polity as the Toronto Economic/Ecological Commuter Watershed. Greater Toronto cries out to be recognised and then utilised as the prototype for Canada 2.0 — The Urban Eco-Eco Watershed.

c) We don’t live in provinces – we Canadians ACTUALLY live in, or near, or … very far away from BIG Cities. The model that tries to “equalise” the living/working conditions amongst the existing 10+3 Blatantly UN-equal jurisdictions is just fooling itself (while it pretends to fool us).

Point #6 — Until the GTA is unified we must look at it separately as a Big Sibling/Younger Sibling relationship with the younger emulating the older, sometimes surpassing and sometimes failing.

NUMBER 2

Conditional Sales

As above, in Q1 2017 you could not get a Seller to accept a Conditional Offer (5 days to tidy-up mortgaging, do a Home Inspection, review a Condo Status Certificate etc) but in 2018’s more Balance-to-Buyer’s market conditions Conditional Offers are quite common – as they were since long-before 1977 – when I started monitoring the TREB stats.

Top Chart is 8082 June Sales as reported by TREB in School Yr (September – August) format

Lower one is same except 8082+600 = 8682 – adjusted to partially account for the Market activity in June that created over 1500 “Accepted by Both Buyer and Seller Conditional Agreements” ….

 

1c-Sales-school-yr-TREB-JUNE2018

1c2-600-Sales-school-yr-TREB-JUNE2018

 

 

Part 1 — 7 or 9 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed

Part 2 *Inventory, New Listings, Days on Market, Months of Inventory & Sales as%

Part 3 * More about Point of View – using The School Year Sept 1-Aug 31, 

Part 4 *Why didn’t we Stop the Boom before it Busted?

Part 5(i) * -The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA

Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy

Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? 

Part 7 * The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes 

Part 8 It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity 

Part 9 (and again in Late March of 2018) I’ve been wondering about the “Hot Market” Sales Spikes that occurred in Q1 of 1991 & 1994

 

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8 thoughts on “Part 1 — 9 or 10 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed regarding Toronto/GTA Real Estate 2018 – or we’ll never get anywhere. Not now … and not then … First of 5 sets of charts below and on 8 more numbered posts

  1. Pingback: Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy | unclebobexplains

  2. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  3. Pingback: Part 7 –The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes for a) registered practitioners, b) active Buyers/Sellers and then c) commentators/pundits &media shills to catch onto New Conditions and refocus their formerly useful “Lenses&#

  4. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  5. Pingback: Part 8 – It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity (what can I buy with that increase in $$) But … there is always a transitional lag – a delayed wave

  6. Pingback: Part 9 (and again in Late March of 2018) I’ve been wondering about the “Hot Market” Sales Spikes that occurred in Q1 of 1991 & 1994 – Looking now using “Time Excerpts” from the Fabulous Charts at Paul Zammit Realty

  7. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  8. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

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