Part 5(i) * -The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA are actually ONE, but not yet – see longer-term 2002-2018 chart

Updated July 11 2018

Number 5 –The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA are actually ONE Economic-Ecological Commuter/Consumer Watershed and one day will become Canada’s Prototype Special Administrative Zone (a Neo-Province/Subsidiarity, that dares not speak its name)

& Number 6 — But until then, 905 & 416 are governed, reported and ‘thought-of’ as two

— edit — Newly revised to include July 2018.

Originally created at year-end 2017 – with the help of Michael Murphy in the Research dept at TREB I was able to arithmetically split out historic-905 data from the overall reportage. These two separated 905/415 15 year charts show the Big Sibling/Younger Sibling relationship (sometimes emulating, sometimes surpassing and sometimes falling back)

Until this report, we Toronto-centric types had not appreciated the HUGE INFLUENCE that 905’s greater-by-far (~150%) unit sales have on the simple mathematics that compute the bellwether, “Overall Average TREB Price” statistic that hits the headlines every month.

At this point in 2018 it is unwise to focus on the TREB Overall Average Price and TREB Overall Unit Sales because the two internal components (sales and prices) in the two big territorial areas are moving in different directions … the 905 Ave Price is down and 905’s sales are languishing 15-20% below the 10 yr average (fewer buyers) …. at the same time, 416 sales are similarly down from the 10 yr average (because of low supply) …BUT … the 416 prices are moving up.

Note to pundits the 150% INFLUENCE of 905’s larger number of sales (at revert-to-mean prices) is hiding the 416 recovery within the Overall Stats reported for TREB. 

Sales in 905 separated from 416

905 Units Sold were significantly larger every month and then …. became HUGE – sales number increases (check prime spring & fall monthly sales numbers – 416 at 4000-5000/mth, 905 at 5500-9500/mth – in chart below). No doubt these 905 sales numbers were pushed higher (7,000/mth and more) in 2014-2017, by galloping 416 prices & by the doubled Land Transfer Tax(LTT) costs in 416

90b separated 416 905 SALES-JUNE2018

 

Prices in 905 separated from 416

NB – the demand push on prices in 416 sent the reported monthly 905 Average Price up to where it was matching the 416 Average Price (and therefore statistically pushing the overall $ even higher) …… for a while.

Similar 905-416 comment Jan 15 2018 as “Price Selection”

NB Now it’s reversed-back to ‘normal’ (jargon is ‘revert to mean’) and the bigger number of 905 sales (at lower average Prices) is pulling extra-powerfully DOWN statistically on the TREB Overall averages Price

90b separated 416 905 PRICES-JUNE2018

 

I presume the 905/416 prices will remain in this, their traditional pattern and agree with TREB’s position to continue their pro forma presentation of the 27 page Market Watch … my only suggestion would be to emphasize ON THE PRESS RELEASE the distinctly different contributions of the two vital components within the overall sales & prices …. maybe some reporter with an eye for a regional story or a pundit one with a mathematical bent and a name-to-make will catch on.

 

 

Part 1 — 7 or 9 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed

Part 2 *Inventory, New Listings, Days on Market, Months of Inventory & Sales as%

Part 3 * More about Point of View – using The School Year Sept 1-Aug 31, 

Part 4 *Why didn’t we Stop the Boom before it Busted?

Part 5(i) * -The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA

Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy

Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? 

Part 7 * The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes 

Part 8 It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity 

Part 9 (and again in Late March of 2018) I’ve been wondering about the “Hot Market” Sales Spikes that occurred in Q1 of 1991 & 1994

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9 thoughts on “Part 5(i) * -The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA are actually ONE, but not yet – see longer-term 2002-2018 chart

  1. Pingback: Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy | unclebobexplains

  2. Pingback: Part 1 * 7 or 9 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed re Toronto/GTA Real Estate 2018 – or we’ll never get anywhere. Not now … and not then … First of 5 sets of charts below and on 9 more numbered-posts | unclebobex

  3. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  4. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  5. Pingback: Part 7 –The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes for a) registered practitioners, b) active Buyers/Sellers and then c) commentators/pundits &media shills to catch onto New Conditions and refocus their formerly useful “Lenses&#

  6. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  7. Pingback: Part 8 – It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity (what can I buy with that increase in $$) But … there is always a transitional lag – a delayed wave

  8. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  9. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

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