Part 3 * More about Point of View – using The School Year Sept 1-Aug 31, rather than the Calendar Year

Updated July 11 2018

Also NUMBER #3

A look at both Prices and Sales from this ‘fiscal year’-style perspective. Why? because to me the Seasonality of TREB market is most influenced by our School Term (and the weather). In many cases, it’s families that plan to Sell or Buy and co-ordinate that Move to align with the start/finish or just before-the-end of the School year – so our Market’s four seasons are expressed herein as Fall Rally, Dec-Jan Hiatus/Hibernation, Spring Rally & Summer doldrums

Using this Time format the Dec-Jan low point is accentuated where in Calendar format it is split and kinda-lost at the edges

MLS Sales on Jan-Dec “Calendar Yr”

1-Sales-yr-over-yr-TREB-May2018

 

MLS Sales by Sept-Aug “School Year” -as reported

1c-Sales-school-yr-TREB-JUNE2018

This version of 2018  School Year is adjusted by adding 600 to Jan, Feb, March, Apr, May & June as a representation of Conditional-Solds ‘Arranged but not Counted’ in TREB Pro Forma … AND that were nearly-impossible to arrange (get accepted by a Seller) in 2016 & 2017 hot-hot markets

1c2-600-Sales-school-yr-TREB-JUNE2018

 

TREB MLS Ave PRICES on Jan-Dec Calendar Year

2-Prices-yr-over-yr-TREB-JUNE2018

 

same PRICE data on School Year

2y-SchoolYear-Prices-JUNE2018

 

ADDED BONUS

– ANNUAL PRICE CHANGE by month 2015, 2016, 2017 and now 2018

2a-PricesANN-GAIN-yr-over-yr-JUNE2018

 

Part 1 — 7 or 9 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed

Part 2 *Inventory, New Listings, Days on Market, Months of Inventory & Sales as%

Part 3 * More about Point of View – using The School Year Sept 1-Aug 31, 

Part 4 *Why didn’t we Stop the Boom before it Busted?

Part 5(i) * -The Two Solitudes of the GTA/GGHA

Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy

Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? 

Part 7 * The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes 

Part 8 It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity 

Part 9 (and again in Late March of 2018) I’ve been wondering about the “Hot Market” Sales Spikes that occurred in Q1 of 1991 & 1994

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8 thoughts on “Part 3 * More about Point of View – using The School Year Sept 1-Aug 31, rather than the Calendar Year

  1. Pingback: Part 1 * 7 or 9 rarely-noted points that absolutely must be discussed re Toronto/GTA Real Estate 2018 – or we’ll never get anywhere. Not now … and not then … First of 5 sets of charts below and on 9 more numbered-posts | unclebobex

  2. Pingback: Part 5(ii) 905 vs 416 — A closer look (5 yrs) at the Price Dichotomy | unclebobexplains

  3. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number 2) Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  4. Pingback: Part 7 –The Adjustment Lag – the 3-phased time it takes for a) registered practitioners, b) active Buyers/Sellers and then c) commentators/pundits &media shills to catch onto New Conditions and refocus their formerly useful “Lenses&#

  5. Pingback: Part 8 – It’s demand that drives Realty Prices – supply is a by-product of Price engendered Fear, Greed &/or Opportunity (what can I buy with that increase in $$) But … there is always a transitional lag – a delayed wave

  6. Pingback: Part 9 (and again in Late March of 2018) I’ve been wondering about the “Hot Market” Sales Spikes that occurred in Q1 of 1991 & 1994 – Looking now using “Time Excerpts” from the Fabulous Charts at Paul Zammit Realty

  7. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

  8. Pingback: Part 6 * Inflation & Interest Rates – Friend or Foe? TREB 1969 – 2018. The very ‘real’ component of appreciation that gets you nuthin’ except a bigger number. 2)Low interest rates, a “leveraged” investment and

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