Sales arranged in May and Closed in Sept, reported yesterday

Sales arranged in May and Closed in Sept, reported yesterday

https://housepriceindex.ca/2018/10/september2018/

Post Category: Monthly Reports
October 12, 2018

National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  came in flat from the month before,[1] matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.

The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.

Composite 11
Zoom1y3y5yAllFromDec 2000ToSep 201812-Month % ChangeIndex20102002200420062008201220142016201820002010-10010200100200300

Apr 2011 Index y/y
Composite 11 142.22 3.73%

In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.

[1] Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales entered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ present moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes, a procedure that evens out month-to-month fluctuations. For our full methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca

Metropolitan area Index Level
% change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Composite 11 226.23 0.05 2.14 0.00 Sep 2018
Calgary 181.08 -0.14 -1.29 -3.86 Oct 2014
Edmonton 182.41 0.03 -0.50 -2.93 Sep 2007
Vancouver 293.02 0.01 6.22 -0.34 Jul 2018
Victoria 209.84 0.51 5.46 0.00 Sep 2018
Winnipeg 211.50 1.15 2.80 0.00 Sep 2018
Halifax 148.75 -0.24 4.78 -0.81 Jul 2018
Hamilton 236.35 0.21 1.39 -0.49 Aug 2017
Ottawa-Gatineau 161.23 0.15 5.12 0.00 Sep 2018
Toronto 245.12 -0.10 -0.78 -3.85 Jul 2017
Montréal 174.27 0.48 4.85 0.00 Sep 2018
Québec City 182.64 -0.60 0.74 -0.60 Aug 2018
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2011 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.
Disclaimer

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Kan Zhu
Leader, Data & Advisory Solutions
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 416-360-8863 x 2270
Email: Kan.Zhu@teranet.ca
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: Michael.Pertsis@bnc.ca
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