Sales arranged in May and Closed in Sept, reported yesterday
In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM came in flat from the month before, matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For Hamilton and Montreal it was the sixth consecutive monthly rise, for cumulative gains of 5.8% and 4.3% respectively. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight rise for a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Of course, these gains incorporate usual upward price pressure from April to August. For Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, the rising trend still persists even with correction of these seasonal effects.
The indexes for Vancouver and Edmonton came in flat on the month. For Edmonton it was a sixth straight month without a decline, for a cumulative gain of 3.4% over the period. Indexes were down on the month for Toronto (−0.1%), Calgary (−0.1%), Halifax (−0.2%) and Quebec City (−0.6%). If the Vancouver index were corrected for seasonal variation, it would have shown retreats in each of the last four months. If the Calgary index were so corrected it would have shown retreats in each of the last three months. This observation is consistent with declines in home sales reported by the real estate boards of these two markets.
In September the composite index was up 2.1% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August because the composite index began declining in September 2017. Thanks to advances earlier this year, the 12-month rise was well above the countrywide average in Vancouver (6.2%), Victoria (5.5%) and Halifax (4.8%), while very recent advances resulted in relatively large 12-month gains in Ottawa-Gatineau (5.1%) and Montréal (4.8%). Gains over a year earlier were smaller in Winnipeg (2.8%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Three indexes were down from a year earlier: Edmonton (−0.5%), Toronto (−0.8%) and Calgary (−1.3%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other metropolitan areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In July, two of these, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from 0.9% in Sudbury to 11.3% in Abbotsford-Mission and Windsor.
 Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales entered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ present moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes, a procedure that evens out month-to-month fluctuations. For our full methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca
|Metropolitan area||Index Level
||% change m/m||% change y/y||From peak||Peak date|
|Composite 11||226.23||0.05||2.14||0.00||Sep 2018|
|Québec City||182.64||-0.60||0.74||-0.60||Aug 2018|
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada