It’s too early to tell about 2019 because of the Seasonal PATTERN of Q1
Every January since 1997 there have been listings that Did Not Sell in Q4 of the prior year
Those owners/Listing Registrants waited through the Market Goes to Sleep for the Year-end Holidays and stays asleep until the Saturday after the Kids go back to School lull and then watched renewed attention, showings et al begin again
This is the LAST YEAR’S PRICE market component. They either started too soon (9-11 month possession expectation) or too high and were overlooked while almost-everything else sold in 11-31 days.
On or about Jan 3rd-6th EVERY Registrant in TREB comes to the office, realizes a new year has begun, realizes s/he needs some new/more Listings, has promised to re-invigorate their relationship with their past clients (and now’s the time to start DOING it) and they all make phone calls to every single anyone who has made the faintest peep of an indication that they might be selling in the next few years ….
EVERY phone call is the same (after the hello how are you, long time etc etc) Registrant: “There’s nothing for sale in your neighbourhood – so if you ever were thinking about selling … even with a June possession date/Even at a bit of a high price …. NOW’S the time to do it.
Some are stimulated, some aren’t, some say call after Passover/Easter some say Don’t Bug Me again … but that’s the game, the program, the seasonal pattern sales reps gotta make money every month.
The ones that ARE motivated to list a bit-earlier than they had thought on New Years Eve and at a bit-more than the Registrant really-wanted to ask become THIS YEAR’S PRICE market component
Every year from Jan 15 -Feb 15 (sometimes March 1st) there’s a battle to see if LAST YEAR’S PRICE will prevail or if THIS YEAR’S PRICE will supplant it
Sometimes all of LAST YEAR’S sells out … leaving THIS YEAR’S as the NEW PRICE by default
Other times, the very BEST of last year’s sell (because they’re sick and tired of waiting) and (because of the flood of inventory at higher-than-expected prices) the very BEST of THIS YEAR Listings do indeed sell after 2-3 weeks (but at LAST YEAR’S Price) and Last Year’s Price prevails.
So by March 15th we know for sure whether is an up, or flat or ?? Spring Market
On account of Supply and Demand we know that is.
There’s still the gazillion other socio-economic-political reasons that affect consumers and their confidence
and since it’s winter ….. the amount and intensity of snow and cold play into the equation too