You may have seen the excellent Canada-wide article “Downgrading our forecast for Canada’s housing Market” from Robert Hogue, Assistant Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada. He used seasonally-adjusted, quarterly House Price Index Values (from Royal Lepage and CREA’s HPI)and (quite inspirationally) combined some recent Real Estate market Price Peaks on a Peak=100 basis.…

“If you wish to converse with (each other), first, please define your terms.” — Jean/Carol Canuck-Voltaire-Arpents After hearing Danielle Smith recently posit Alberta Separatism version 5.02 and after years, nay decades, of hearing the Belle Province’s dirigists expounding on Sovereignty in our their house or some ‘durn thang‘, I am moved to discuss Canadian Political…

With only 10.5 of July’s 21 reporting days under our belts — it’s definitely too early to be definite SALES ARE ‘way down, but so are brand-spanking-NEW listings Keep in mind the 4 months of Inventory Guideline Esp w the New Listings mess about to emerge BUT … this uses Stratus INVENTORY (not TrREB’s unadjusted…

INVENTORY New Listings (BOTH Gross & Net) More Looks at Inventory & New Listings Days on Market — PACE of the Market TREB chart of PDOM vs LDOM Months of Supply Sales to New Listing Ratio (sort-of) Ronnie has Both together — look at the Spikes Sales as before

Regular look School Year look TrREB’s Look Mr Hauth has a Loooooong 1972 look Ron’s Shorter Look -2010

Sales show an Annual Pattern — Jan to Dec School Year September to August — Shows the Dec/Jan Lull TrREB Has a 4 at once Bar Chart My chum, Ron Hauth provides lovely line drawings

Where are the sales distributed? Is there a Big Dollar Difference? Nope, not any more But still 60% 905s and 40% in 416 What about by Type? Detached –416 is +27.55% Semi – 416 is +36.11% Attached/TownHouse is +13.32% Condo Apt is +11.36% How About Both together Sales vs the 10 year Averages But —…

1) Toronto/GTA Market stats peaked in February 2022 2) As of June 2022 Monthly report we are off-the-peak by 14.1% 3) Seasonality tells us that June/July/Aug average Prices are almost always lower than that year’s “peak spring” ie wasn’t in 2022 the Kovid Krazy year 4) If we project forward from June 30th 2022 results…