HOW MANY months of Inventory is Normal? A Reply from GTA to a National Stat from a National Pan-Canadian Stat-keeper

https://realestatemagazine.ca/is-canada-shifting-closer-to-a-buyers-market/

Pertinent Excerpt

“… Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, said the national market has just tipped back into the balanced space.

“It was a seller’s market. It was the most crazy seller’s market of all time just eight months ago. So it’s sort of tipped back into the balanced space but very much a close to a seller’s market you can be and still be balanced. On the tighter side for sure,” he said.

The real estate industry uses the months of supply data as a key metric in describing the state of a local housing market. Basically, the metric indicates how long it would take to sell all the inventory listed for sale in a market, given the current demand (sales).

Cathcart said the long-term average for months of inventory is about five months.

He explained that a seller’s market territory is about 3.6 months of supply and under, while a buyer’s market is about 6.6 months of supply and up.

At the end of November, there were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis, according to data from CREA….”

Comment

  1. Robert C Ede, Broker, Toronto, ONRobert C Ede, Broker, Toronto, ON
  2. on December 19, 2022 at 11:25 am
  3. All Statistical analysis depends on the Starting Point and End Point of study.
  4. My chart shows the 10 year average for GTA/TRREB November’s Sales : Inventory to be 1.99 months.
  5. If we could compare the since-2008 CREA stats for the 5-10 biggest cities across the country we might be able to see if my GTA stat is consistent with it (the 5-10 Big City stat) or is an outlier.
  6. Regardless, 3.6, 6.6, 4.2 months of inventory as benchmarks are drawn from such a HUGE and varied agglomeration of data that I think the use of those numbers is not helpful to Buyers or Sellers in the GTA.
  7. I’ve put my chart into the Photo Upload

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