Why the heck are UN-insured mortgages subject-to a +2% STRESS TEST? Don’t lenders have Underwriting depts anymore?
Beats me?!? with a backgrounder on the recent INSURED Mortgage STRESS TEST changes —- Here’s a good chat from Dave Larock
What’s Normal in January? – 10 yr look at Inventory, New Listings, Days on Market, Months of Supply, the Sales-to-NewListing Ratio, Regional Sales & TRRRB Overall Sales
INVENTORY is the Problem — we are OFF the 5 & 10 yr by +30% NEW LISTINGS are also contributing to Inventory/Active SQUEEZE – 5yr is Off 10.6% & 10yr by 14.43%. Buyers (and Sales Reps) primarily trade in Active Listings (this is why Off-Market, Vest-Pocket and Coming-Soon are Hot Topics …. buyers trying to…
GTA and its Four Giant Sub-Markets
~1/3rd in 416 ~1/3rd in WEST905 ~1/3 NORTH905 & EAST905 DATA Chart – Separating the 905’s from 416 — Price Gap still ~9% DATA Chart – Separating by TYPE the Gap rises to 17.11% to ~40% PRICE FROM PEAK -comparing 905’s -11.87% to 416’s -6.17% SALES compared to 10 yr Averages
Sales are HUGELY Up (in the press releases) – Compared to what?
SCHOOL YEAR shows Dec-Jan Seasonal Low .. what the heck, it’s winter (and Christmas) ! Same info in Calendar Yr format — kinda hides the Dec-Jan Low TRRREB MLS SALES CHART – shows how lousy 2018 & 2019 were (worst since 2009 -GFC) Ron Hauth’s 2010 Graph with both Sales + Prices
4+ Looks at PRICES. Are they too high?– Compared to what?!?
Compared to the Peak — Nominally we are 8.71% off April 2017 ….IN JANUARY! TRRREB’s Resale Home Price Bar Chart (groovy new colour scheme too) Ron Hauth’s View from ’72 (and from Jan 2007) ANNUAL PRICE Gains – Are we repeating the pattern of 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, or ….2017 School Yr (September – August) …
Inflation (CPI-adjusted) in TRREB Residential Prices {NB compound 2.5% over 10 years}
Blue is Nominal (as reported that year) Red is same $ amount , but adjusted for CPI (smallest measure of Inflation)
unclebobexplains 