What should I do? Buy? Sell or Hold? – answer follows regular Projections for June GTA/TrREB Sales Results
Chart showing 2020, 2021& YTD 2022 vs the 5 yr & 10 Yr Average More squiggly lines added -showing 2015-2019 as well A client wondered “I see your charts – but what does it mean?” My reply yesterday Universal expectation is for prices to drift lower as higher interest rates (exacerbated by the +2% Stress…
June 22/22 – GTA Realty Sales Benchmarks — We’ll get Averages & Price Stats ~July 4-6/22
Sales Reported per day 2022 = 313.1 Last year June 2021 = 527.5 per day Average Prev 5 yr June = 406.6 per day (-23%) Average Prev 10 yr June = 444.9 per day (-29.6%)
Where’s the bottom? Feb to May is -9.45%. Will it be Equivalent to Average price in Sept 2021, Sept 2020 or Sept 2019?
Watch the pace of Price Changes over next few months — will it be averaging -1.0%? -2.0%? -3.0%? -3.5% per month?
Predictions on Peak-to-trough TRREB Price changes. Prompted by a Twitter post
Yesterday afternoon I saw the second of two posts about the Past Peak & Past Trough in the nominal TRREB Average Price chart. The second tweet was courtesy of daniel de melis @d_demelis Posted as informative graph On first blush, this indicates Facts The Nominal Annual Average Prices for the period (ie unadjusted for any-kind…
May 2022 — Comparing the 10 year average of Inventory, New Listings (again), Days on Market, Pace/Supply and of course Sales.
INVENTORY is the MOST accurate measure of Supply, because it’s a month-end Snapshot. Still UNDER the 5 yr & 10 yr …. but the trend is UP MODIFIED NEW LISTINGS — SUBTRACTING THE 26.4% DUPLICATES The OLD way says the Ratio of Sales-to-New-Listings is NORMAL But it ain’t … and it ain’t BECAUSE Grandma/Pa aren’t…
May 2022 — 4 Looks at Prices in GTA Realty Market
How many CONSECUTIVE Double Digit Annual Price Increases (before this month. that is)? 27 of 29! Do we care about the 2-year Change in prices? TrREB’s Bar chart shows it too – but not-so dramatically (yet) Ron Hauth’s 1972 Chart – shows the anomalies (they come in bunches
May 2022 — 4 Looks at SALES in GTA Realty Market — WHAT DID PUSH PRICES SO HIGH in Late 2021 and Early 2022?
Simply the (21st) best May when we just got used-to Setting all-time records (famous saying from stock-bond fellas “The Trees do NOT grow to the sky”) Same data but “fiscal year” format 7,283 Sales is Okay for the summertime lull — it’s just early this year TrREB’s Bar charts show it pretty plainly Ron Hauth…
May 2022 – “Everybody’s talkin’ at me”… about INFLATION
Recall this one … My Best Snapshot of everything — What’s the best parallel late 1970’s or early 90’s ?? BOTH previous times the wise-ones Raised Interest Rates to Tame Inflation …. IMHO despite knowing all that you see here THESE FOLKS BLEW IT AGAIN – by being afraid to act faster. They could have…
May 2022 — Comparing 416 to its 905 surroundings
FOUR MAIN ZONES – East, West, North and 416 — similar to always Separated into just 2 Zones -416 faded less in one month, but faded more year over year Looking by TYPES within the two zones Still 10% to 35% variance in 416 this month Prices separated -416 edges ahead (first time in months)…
unclebobexplains 